IWSR's Bevtrac research, fielded in September 2025, found something the "Gen Z is going dry" headlines keep missing: this cohort's participation in alcohol is stable year over year, and higher than it was in September 2023. What actually moved is the average number of categories they drink in a single occasion, down from 2.8 to 1.8 over two years. That's not abstinence. That's a portfolio problem, and it's yours.
Gen Z isn't drinking less often, they're drinking fewer categories per occasion. Source: IWSR Bevtrac, Sept 2025.
The conventional wisdom is half right. Everyone in this industry has the same slide by now: non-alcoholic and low-alcohol is booming, Gen Z is sober-curious, brand owners need an NA line or they'll get left behind. The data backs part of that. SIAL Paris puts the global no-low market on pace to hit $40 billion by 2033, and 51 percent of 18-to-25-year-olds now report drinking non-alcoholic beverages regularly. Dry January awareness sits at 71 percent, and nearly half of participants say they keep drinking less once the month ends. None of that is wrong. It's just not the whole story, and stopping there sends brand operators chasing the wrong fix.
The no-low market keeps growing, but growth here is additive, not a straight replacement for traditional categories. Source: SIAL Paris, 2026.
What's actually happening. Fewer categories per occasion is not the same thing as fewer drinkers. IWSR's own numbers show fewer younger LDA+ consumers are taking dry days at all now, and enthusiasm for temporary breaks from drinking looks like it already peaked in most markets IWSR tracks. What's changing is how deliberately this generation spends an occasion once they're in it. They're picking one category and staying there instead of moving through beer, then a cocktail, then a shot. Affordability is compounding it. Alcohol budgets shrank across many markets in the first half of 2025, including among consumers who usually get treated as recession-proof. The categories gaining share right now, standard beer and RTDs, are the ones read as safe, predictable value, not the ones asking for a premium trade-up story.
Why this is a distribution problem, not a marketing one. A brand betting on rotation, the idea that a consumer who starts on your RTD will trade up to your flagship spirit later that night, is building a strategy around a behavior that's disappearing. The occasion gets won or lost once, by whichever category earns the first pour. That changes what a distributor conversation should sound like: less "how many SKUs can we get on the shelf" and more "which single occasion do we actually own here." Mocktails and NA SKUs aren't a separate audience to chase. Per SIAL's research, spirits-free cocktails are emerging as the preferred gateway for 63 percent of young consumers. Treat that pour as the first move in the same occasion, not competition from a different one.
Mocktails are emerging as the preferred gateway pour, not a competing audience. Source: SIAL Paris, 2026.
If your 2026 plan assumes Gen Z will eventually rotate back through your full portfolio the way their parents did, the data says that assumption is what's costing you the placement, not the moderation trend itself.
What to do about it:
Map which single category or SKU your brand needs to win first at the occasions that matter most, since consumers aren't rotating through three categories anymore.
Stop leading distributor pitches with premiumisation and lead with clear, defensible value. Budgets are down even among consumers who usually absorb a price increase without blinking.
Fold your NA or low-ABV SKU into the same occasion story as your core spirit instead of pitching it as a separate line. It's the gateway pour, not a competing one.
Sources:
Six key drivers shaping beverage alcohol in 2026 and beyond — IWSR
theiwsr.com/insight/six-key-drivers-shaping-beverage-alcohol-in-2026-and-beyond/
Beverage trends 2026: functional & mindful drinks — SIAL Paris
sialparis.com/en/trends/trends-focus/beverage-trends-2026
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